Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.470289 2.610502 2.762101 2.939673 3.143976 3.374272 3.657433
2025-03-30 2.234418 2.415882 2.622672 2.880332 3.199923 3.594283 4.137997
2025-04-06 2.073538 2.272224 2.505907 2.808684 3.203715 3.724271 4.511234
2025-04-13 1.963916 2.173620 2.426204 2.763606 3.222353 3.862236 4.917431
2025-04-20 1.912434 2.138490 2.417642 2.803027 3.351939 4.171435 5.686499
2025-04-27 1.887236 2.132137 2.442324 2.885651 3.550241 4.625318 6.941572
2025-05-04 1.835966 2.088137 2.412910 2.888106 3.626677 4.895925 8.016228
2025-05-11 1.791087 2.049112 2.386382 2.890486 3.700967 5.179853 9.400805
2025-05-18 1.727137 1.981535 2.316455 2.822301 3.649540 5.207199 10.059891
2025-05-25 1.687132 1.943707 2.285096 2.808861 3.688007 5.428214 11.766672
2025-06-01 1.648686 1.906093 2.251685 2.789102 3.712089 5.625054 13.868576
2025-06-08 1.611985 1.869224 2.217257 2.764816 3.724430 5.799088 16.537558
2025-06-15 1.595617 1.860446 2.223900 2.808444 3.873860 6.386516 28.591668
2025-06-22 1.551223 1.811565 2.170350 2.751145 3.822355 6.419698 36.158187
2025-06-29 1.507424 1.762122 2.114018 2.685932 3.748520 6.370443 43.385086
2025-07-06 1.472992 1.724630 2.073763 2.644958 3.719363 6.451352 71.927208
2025-07-13 1.461547 1.718674 2.079524 2.680775 3.851638 7.107735 NaN
2025-07-20 1.460650 1.727303 2.107156 2.755671 4.080736 8.310370 NaN
2025-07-27 1.441689 1.709516 2.093822 2.757893 4.148518 8.948258 NaN
2025-08-03 1.423769 1.692607 2.081036 2.760046 4.216722 9.679069 NaN
2025-08-10 1.391770 1.654596 2.034356 2.698268 4.122802 9.467941 NaN
2025-08-17 1.372714 1.634832 2.015382 2.686072 4.150110 10.002744 NaN
2025-08-24 1.353247 1.613966 1.993961 2.668129 4.160979 10.471658 NaN